Humber for Cordero – missed opportunity or dodged bullet?
In June 2003, Chad Cordero became the surprise first round pick of the Montreal Expos, a franchise led by none other than Omar Minaya. Despite a 1.62 ERA and 56:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio for one of the nation’s best teams, Cordero was ranked only the 86th best prospect in his class by Baseball America. Whether because of great scouting or simply a belief that the franchise was in its final season, the Expos selected Cordero and promoted him to the major league roster less than three months later. Since then, Cordero has used his low 90s fastball combined with a plus slider and changeup to attack hitters and amass 112 career saves, posting a 2.62 ERA in the process.
The back of Cordero’s baseball card is impressive to be sure. No one doubts his past performance, but what of the future? After all, the ability to distinguish past performance from future performance could serve as a job description for the position of general manager. That’s why Steve Phillips works for ESPN, not a major league franchise. So far in 2007, Cordero is striking out only 6.5 batters per nine innings, by far the lowest total of his career. His walk rate (now at 3.5 per nine) is also way up from the previous two seasons. I would suggest that these two problems are related. Cordero’s stuff is good, but not so good that it can generate lots of strikeouts without being commanded effectively. A disproportionate amount of Cordero’s walks came in April and May so this problem may have already been rectified. His stuff is still there and it’s unlikely he’s already beginning to decline at age 25.
A bigger problem arises in Cordero’s peripheral stats. Here’s a look at what I’ll now just refer to as “batted ball DIPS” (acronym for defense independent pitching statistic) versus ERA for Cordero.
|
Year |
BBDIPS |
ERA |
|
2004 |
4.52 |
2.94 |
|
2005 |
3.74 |
1.82 |
|
2006 |
4.08 |
3.19 |
|
2007 |
4.39 |
2.65 |
Now, there’s something to be said for a pitcher who can beat this stat consistently and I believe in a reliever’s ability to do it more so than a starter’s. But it’s disturbing nonetheless. However, given that he would have been moving to Shea (it’s no RFK, but still very forgiving to flyball pitchers) and to a good defensive team, I do not believe Cordero would have been badly exposed had this trade gone down.
I think Mets fans know enough about Phil Humber that I don’t have to go into his whole biography. Low 90s fastball, great curve, injury risk, etc. I will say that if the Mets moved Humber into the major league bullpen tomorrow, he might perform as well as Cordero. Is it probable? No. But certainly possible. Now that the deadline has come and gone without the addition of bullpen help, this is something the team should explore.
All in all, I would have liked the Mets to make this trade. The main reason why is that Cordero is only in his 4th year of service, meaning that he will not be a free agent until after the 2009 season. Not only would this have guaranteed the Mets many innings of quality relief pitching, but at any time in the next two years, the team could trade Cordero and get a return that might even be as good as what they gave up to get him in the first place.
But hey, that’s just my take. There’s a lot of room for debate here.
